*All data provided by Urbanation
New Condo Sales Plunge 91% Below 10-Year Average
Only 502 new condo units were sold in Q2-2025 across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), marking a 10% drop from Q1 and a 69% year-over-year decline.
Q2 typically sees peak activity, but this year’s sales were 91% below the 10-year seasonal average—continuing a trend of 30-year lows.
Resale condo transactions also fell 20% annually to 4,074 units, hitting a 17-year low (excluding COVID years) and landing 32% below the 10-year average.
Developers Halt Launches and Cancel Projects Amid Surging Resale Listings
Only three new projects (891 units) launched for presale in Q2, while four projects (719 units) were cancelled.
Since early 2024, 20 projects totaling 4,360 units have been cancelled, with nine now being converted to rentals—including three from Q2-2025.
Resale listings hit a record 14,759 units in Q2, 35% above the 10-year average.
New Launches Struggle Despite Price Drops to $1,000 PSF
Just 16% of newly launched units sold in Q2—far below the 10-year average of 50%.
This sluggish performance came despite limited inventory and average opening prices falling to $1,003 PSF, the lowest since Q2-2020.
Resale market activity also weakened, with a sales-to-listings ratio of 28%, half the 10-year average and the lowest Q2 level in three decades.
Developer Inventory Doubles, Resale Listings Hit Record High
Total unsold inventory reached 24,045 units in Q2-2025, down 3% year-over-year—marking the first annual decline in over three years.
However, 2,478 newly completed units remained unsold, a 102% increase from last year and five times higher than two years ago.
Active resale listings ended Q2 at 8,998 units—double the 10-year average.
Prices Continue to Slide for Both New and Resale Condos
New condo prices averaged $1,325 PSF in Q2, down 2% year-over-year and 7% over three years (excluding incentives).
Resale prices dropped 8% annually to $797 PSF, with a three-year decline of 14%.
The price gap between new and resale condos widened to a record 66%, more than double the spread from a decade ago.
Completions to Hit Record High in 2025, Then Plunge by 2027
Condo construction starts fell 57% year-over-year in Q2 to just 1,276 units—an 84% drop over two years.
Q2 completions rose slightly (2%) to 4,918 units, but 17,117 more units are scheduled for completion in the second half of 2025.
Total completions for 2025 will reach a record 31,599 units, before declining to 18,037 in 2026 and just 10,841 by 2027.
Rental Supply Surges, Pushing Down Rents
A record 18,119 condo leases were signed in Q2-2025, up 10% year-over-year.
However, rental listings grew 13% to 24,918 units—surpassing the previous high from Q3-2020.
The lease-to-listing ratio fell to a five-year low of 73%, while active listings rose 23% to 6,156 units.
Average rents dropped 4.5% annually to $3.79 PSF, or $2,589 for a typical 683 SF unit.
🔍 What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
🏠 For Buyers:
More Choices, Lower Prices: With record-high inventory and falling prices, buyers have more options and stronger negotiating power.
Better Deals on Resale Units: Resale condos are significantly cheaper than new builds, with a growing price gap (66% premium for new).
Rental Market Softening: If you're considering renting before buying, falling rents and rising supply make it a tenant-friendly market.
Caution on New Builds: Many projects are being cancelled or converted to rentals, so buyers should vet developer reliability and timelines carefully.
🏢 For Sellers:
Tougher Competition: With resale listings at record highs and sluggish demand, sellers face longer listing times and pressure to reduce prices.
Lower Sales Ratios: Only 28% of resale listings are selling—half the historical average—making it harder to close deals.
Price Pressure: Resale prices are down 14% over three years, and buyers are increasingly price-sensitive.
Rental as Plan B: If selling isn’t viable, leasing out your unit may be an alternative—but expect lower rents and longer vacancy periods.
About Anne Lok, Broker B. Arch, M.AAD.
Anne is a Toronto-based realtor with an architectural background, specializing in design-forward properties in historically rich neighbourhoods. She offers a customized approach for each client, helping buyers find homes that blend timeless charm with modern functionality. Anne also guides sellers in showcasing the unique appeal of their properties and assists investors in identifying opportunities with strong potential for growth.
Contact Anne for a Buyer or Seller consultation.
Comments:
Post Your Comment: